March 3, 2020

COVID-19 is NOT like the FLU

A common meme is that COVID-19 is like the FLU, it is NOT. Here is a comparison:

	COVID-19	FLU
1) Mortality is about 10 to 20 times higher.	CFR 1.7% - 4%	CFR 0.1% - 0.2%
2) Serious and critical cases are more than 10 times as frequent.	15% - 20% serious 5% ICU	1.5% hospitalised
3) Multiple times as many people may get infected.	40% to 80% of world population (estimate)	5% - 20% of population (actual)
4) One person will infect up to 3 times as many others.	R0 = 2.0 - 4.0	R0 = 1.3
5) Without lockdowns it multiplies more than twice as fast; exponential. ca.	3 days doubling-time	ca. 7 days doubling-time
6) Infectious weeks before symptoms show - Incubation	2 - 14 days. (outliers 27 days, average 5.5 days)	2 days. (infectious 1 day before symptoms)
7) It can be transmitted through air more than 2 - 3 meters.	possible aerosolized transmission ('airborne' virus)	aerosolized transmission ('airborne' virus)
8) It can be transmitted via hard surfaces for more than a week.	survives 9 days on hard surfaces	survives 1 day on surfaces
9) People are infectious more than twice as long.	infectious for 2 to 4 weeks	infectious for about a week
10) Frequently doctors and nurses die.	thousands got infected, some died	minimal known cases
11) Multiple reports of recurrence after ‘cured’.	14% tested positive again after being released (one report)	immediate recurrence is rare
12) ER and ICU’s get overloaded	frequent	rare

References