March 3, 2020

COVID-19 is NOT like the FLU

A common meme is that COVID-19 is like the FLU, it is NOT.  Here is a comparison:

COVID-19 FLU
1) Mortality is about 10 to 20 times higher. CFR 1.7% - 4% CFR 0.1% - 0.2%
2) Serious and critical cases are more than 10 times as frequent. 15% - 20% serious 5% ICU 1.5% hospitalised
3) Multiple times as many people may get infected. 40% to 80% of world population (estimate) 5% - 20% of population (actual)
4) One person will infect up to 3 times as many others. R0 = 2.0 - 4.0 R0 = 1.3
5) Without lockdowns it multiplies more than twice as fast; exponential. ca. 3 days doubling-time ca. 7 days doubling-time
6) Infectious weeks before symptoms show - Incubation 2 - 14 days. (outliers 27 days, average 5.5 days) 2 days. (infectious 1 day before symptoms)
7) It can be transmitted through air more than 2 - 3 meters. possible aerosolized transmission ('airborne' virus) aerosolized transmission ('airborne' virus)
8) It can be transmitted via hard surfaces for more than a week. survives 9 days on hard surfaces survives 1 day on surfaces
9) People are infectious more than twice as long. infectious for 2 to 4 weeks infectious for about a week
10) Frequently doctors and nurses die. thousands got infected, some died minimal known cases
11) Multiple reports of recurrence after ‘cured’. 14% tested positive again after being released (one report) immediate recurrence is rare
12) ER and ICU’s get overloaded frequent rare

Age Groups

References

General Sources

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